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1 January 2000: What To Expect
Prepared by Y&R's Brand Futures Group
While the third millennium technically doesn't begin until
1 January 2001, the world's revelries will take place a year earlier.
So, what will the dawn of that day bring (other than some pretty serious
hangovers)? Here's a sample of what we can expect:
* Though there are other contenders, the Chatham Islands in the South
Pacific seem to have the leading claim to be the first inhabited land
mass to witness the dawn of the millennium. On the summit of Mount Hapeka
on Pitt Island, at 3:59 on the morning of 1 January 2000, the new millennium
sun will rise. (Needless to say, TV companies around the world are vying
for the film rights...)
* The sun will shine particularly brightly on the nine cities Europe has
declared cities of culture for the year 2000. They are Avignon, Bergen,
Bologna, Brussels, Helsinki, Krakow, Prague, Reykjavik, and Santiago de
Compostela. Several of these cities will be linked by satellite, creating
a virtual Museum that incorporates the top cultural attractions in each
one.
* Who won't be partying the night before? Nearly two-thirds of the world's
population (primarily in non-Christian countries), but that still leaves
about 2 billion observers. (Also not in a party mood will be those staffing
suicide hotlines. Suicide runs at record levels on New Year's Eve, and
1999 is expected to be particularly fatal.)
* In China, the dawn of the year 2000 is expected to mark the beginning
of a baby boomlet-not because of the millennium, but because it's a year
of the dragon, an auspicious time to be born.
* The Western media will make it virtually impossible to ignore the millennium.
Beginning the first day of '99, print, radio, and TV will feature retrospective
histories of human civilization and our achievements over the last 100,
1,000, and 2,000 years. Apocalyptic expectations, millennial cults, and
prophecies will also be spotlighted, as will prognostications for the
next 100 or 1,000 years.
* And now for the bad news. We've all heard about the "millennium
bug" (a.k.a. Y2K), which is expected to strike when computers fail
to differentiate between the years 2000 and 1900. The extent to which
companies are prepared to deal with this problem varies radically from
country to country and industry to industry. (The Gartner Group estimates
that worldwide compliance may reach only 50 percent, with Asia, Latin
America, and the Middle East being hardest hit.) The Millennium: A Rough
Guide to the Year 2000 reports on things that may go haywire that day:
"Air conditioners, airplanes, air traffic controllers, automatic
doors, bar code readers, cafeteria equipment, cameras, cars, cash registers,
clocks, credit card scanners, electronic vaults, emergency lighting, escalators,
fax machines, fire alarms, fridge/freezers, heating systems, helicopters,
hospital equipment, lifts, lighting systems, medical equipment, microwaves,
military hardware, missile systems, motorized wheelchairs, optical readers,
pagers, photocopiers, postage meters, power management systems, printers,
satellite receivers, scanners, security gates, telephones, thermostats,
time clocks, traffic lights, vending machines, video recorders, and water
heaters." How bad could it be? Let's put it this way: According to
Wired (Aug. '98), some software programmers assigned to deal with the
Y2K bug are building bomb shelter-like compounds and stocking nonperishable
foods. Even the CIA is advising agents abroad to keep cash on hand and
stockpile extra blankets.
* Deutsche Bank economist Edward Yardeni says there's a 70 percent chance
Y2K could trigger a global recession. [Source: The Industry Standard's
Intelligencer, 2 July '98] All told, analysts predict the worldwide bill
for Y2K repairs will reach US$300-$500bn.
* In anticipation of cash hoarding prior to Y2K, the U.S. Federal Reserve
has announced plans to store an extra US$50bn in government vaults.
* A British government study predicted there will be 600 to 1,500 Y2K-related
deaths in the U.K. alone. "It's probably a very conservative prediction,"
says Mike Smith, author of the report and professor of medical technology
at St. Bartholomew's, Royal London School of Medicine and Dentistry. The
report notes that primary life-sustaining devices are likely to be fixed,
but secondary systems, such as computerized medical records and emergency
systems, are in jeopardy. [Source: Nua Internet Surveys, 19 Aug. '98]
* Where there are crises, law suits are sure to follow. The Gartner Group
estimates the cost of possible Y2K litigation at more than US$1tr. 'Netting
Additional Insight: Online MILLENNIUM Resources
* Club 2000
* Everything 2000
* Millennium Celebrations
* Millennium Society
* Project 21st Century
* Project Millennium
* The Billennium
Future Dialogue is Brand Futures Group's weekly trendletter;
it keeps Y&R employees and clients up-to-date on issues, trends, and
events that are affecting various consumer markets worldwide. Please direct
comments, topic recommendations, and queries to Ann O'Reilly, editor in
chief of Brand Futures Group, at Ann_O'Reilly@yr.com. She also can be
reached by fax at 813.948.0134.
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